Modeling monkeypox transmission with a compartmental framework to evaluate testing, isolation and public awareness...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Recent global outbreaks of monkeypox (mpox) highlight the urgent need to understand and control its transmission dynamics.
• Mpox poses significant public health challenges, affecting both humans and non-human primates.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model for mpox transmission.
• To evaluate the impact of self-isolation, testing, and public awareness on mitigating mpox spread.
• To identify key parameters influencing mpox transmission and effective control strategies.

Main Methods:

• Development of a deterministic mathematical model for mpox transmission dynamics.
• Calibration of the model using U.S. incidence data via nonlinear least squares fitting.
• Stability analysis to determine conditions for disease elimination versus sustained transmission.
• Sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of various parameters on disease spread.
• Numerical simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of targeted interventions.

Main Results:

• The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) determines disease persistence; [Formula: see text] < 1 leads to elimination, while [Formula: see text] > 1 suggests endemicity.
• Transmission rates, public awareness levels, and isolation compliance are critical factors influencing mpox spread.
• Sensitivity analysis confirmed that targeted strategies, even with partial adherence, can substantially decrease new mpox infections.

Conclusions:

• A comprehensive strategy combining isolation, testing, and public awareness is essential for managing mpox outbreaks.
• Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights for designing effective public health interventions against mpox.
• Findings support enhanced preparedness for future mpox outbreaks through evidence-based strategies.