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Fire-Driven Land Cover Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk in African Landscapes
1Department of Political Science, Ostrom Workshop for Political Analysis, and Tobias Center for Innovation in International Development, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, USA. okoren@iu.edu.
Ecohealth
|July 27, 2025
Summary
Wildfires and vegetation loss significantly increase zoonotic disease risk in forests, but not in agricultural areas. This highlights the need for integrated fire management and land-use strategies to prevent disease spillover.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Epidemiology
- Conservation biology
Background:
- Land use and land cover (LULC) change, particularly habitat disruption, is a known driver of zoonotic disease emergence.
- Empirical evidence directly linking LULC changes to zoonotic risk has been limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide clear empirical evidence on the link between fire-linked vegetation loss and zoonotic disease risk.
- To differentiate the impact of vegetation loss on zoonotic risk across different landscape types (forests vs. agricultural areas).
Main Methods:
- Utilized new spatially disaggregated data to track monthly vegetation anomalies (NDVI deviations) across landscape types.
- Employed a quasi-experimental mediation design to estimate the indirect effect of fire on disease outbreaks via vegetation loss.
Main Results:
- Fire-driven vegetation decline significantly increases zoonotic disease outbreak rates in forest landscapes.
- No significant association was found between fire-linked vegetation loss and zoonotic outbreaks in agricultural or other land-use areas.
Conclusions:
- Fires, including both human-induced and natural, are a key factor in shaping zoonotic disease risk.
- Integrated fire management and land-use strategies are crucial for reducing zoonotic spillover potential and aligning public health with conservation goals.
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