How population control of pests is modulated by density dependence: The perspective of genetic biocontrol

Managing pest species relies critically on mechanisms that regulate population dynamics, particularly those factors that change with population size. These density-dependent factors can help or hinder control efforts and are especially relevant considering recent advances in genetic techniques that allow for precise manipulation of the timing and sex-specificity of population suppression. Despite this importance, density dependence is often poorly characterized owing to limited data and an incomplete understanding of organism development. To address this issue, we construct and analyze a mathematical model of a pest population with a general control under a wide range of density dependence scenarios. Using this model, we investigate how control performance is affected by the strength of density dependence. By modifying the timing and sex-specificity of the control, we tailor our analysis to simulate different pest control strategies, including conventional and genetic biocontrol methods. We pay particular attention to the latter, using case studies to explore specific examples with an extended version of the baseline model that includes genetic dynamics. Finally, we clarify past work on mechanistic models with flawed derivations that do not exhibit overcompensatory density dependence. We find substantial differences in control performance for differing strengths of density dependence, with populations exhibiting strong density dependence being most resilient to suppression. However, these results change with the size and timing of the control load, as well as the target sex. Interestingly, we also find that the strength of density dependence affects population invasion by certain genetic biocontrol strategies. While the model is parameterized using the life history traits of the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti, the principles developed here apply to many pest species. We conclude by discussing the implications of density dependence timing and strength for suppression of pest populations.