SurgeryLSTM: a time-aware neural model for accurate and explainable length of stay prediction after spine surgery

To develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models for predicting length of stay (LOS) in elective spine surgery, with a focus on the benefits of temporal modeling and model interpretability.

We compared traditional ML models (eg, Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine [SVM], and XGBoost) with our developed model, SurgeryLSTM, a masked bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with an attention, using structured perioperative electronic health records (EHR) data. Performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R ²), and key predictors were identified using explainable AI.

SurgeryLSTM achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R ² = 0.86), outperforming XGBoost (R ² = 0.85) and baseline models. The attention mechanism improved interpretability by dynamically identifying influential temporal segments within preoperative clinical sequences, allowing clinicians to trace which events or features most contributed to each LOS prediction. Key predictors of LOS included bone disorder, chronic kidney disease, and lumbar fusion identified as the most impactful predictors of LOS.

Temporal modeling with attention mechanisms significantly improves LOS prediction by capturing the sequential nature of patient data. Unlike static models, SurgeryLSTM provides both higher accuracy and greater interpretability, which are critical for clinical adoption. These results highlight the potential of integrating attention-based temporal models into hospital planning workflows.

SurgeryLSTM presents an effective and interpretable AI solution for LOS prediction in elective spine surgery. Our findings support the integration of temporal, explainable ML approaches into clinical decision support systems to enhance discharge readiness and individualized patient care.