Terrestrial land cover shapes fish diversity in a major subtropical river catchment

Freshwater biodiversity is critically affected by human modifications of terrestrial land use and land cover (LULC). Yet, knowledge of the spatial extent and magnitude of LULC-aquatic biodiversity linkages is still surprisingly limited, impeding the implementation of optimal management strategies. Here, we compiled fish diversity data using environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling across a 160,000-km² subtropical river catchment in Thailand characterized by exceptional biodiversity yet intense anthropogenic alterations, and attributed fish species richness and community composition to contemporary terrestrial LULC across the catchment. We estimated a spatial range of LULC effects extending up to about 20 km upstream from sampling sites, and explained nearly 60% of the variance in the observed species richness, associated with major LULC categories including croplands, forest, and urban areas. We find that integrating both the spatial range and magnitude of LULC effects is needed to accurately predict fish species richness. Further, projected LULC changes showcase future gains and losses of fish species richness across the river network and offer a scalable basis for riverine biodiversity conservation and land management, allowing for potential mitigation of biodiversity loss in highly diverse yet data-deficient tropical to sub-tropical riverine habitats.