Machine Learning Models Derived from [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT for the Prediction of Recurrence in Patients with Thymomas

Background/Objectives: This study aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict recurrence in thymoma patients using conventional and radiomic signatures extracted from preoperative [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT. Methods: A total of 50 patients (25 males, 25 females; mean age 63.3 ± 14.2 years) who underwent thymectomy and preoperative [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT between 2012 and 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Radiomic analysis was performed using free-from-recurrence (FFR) status as a reference. Clinico-metabolic PET parameters were collected, and thymoma lesions were manually segmented on [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT. A total of 856 radiomic features (RFts) were extracted from PET and CT datasets following IBSI guidelines, and robust RFts were selected. The dataset was split into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Two ML models (PET- and CT-based, respectively), each with three classifiers-Random Forest (RF), Support-Vector-Machine, and Tree-were trained and internally validated using RFts and clinico-metabolic signatures. Results: A total of 50 ROIs were selected and segmented. FFR was observed in 84% of our cohort. Forty-three robust RFts were selected from the CT dataset and 16 from the PET dataset, predominantly wavelet-based RFts. Additionally, three metabolic PET parameters were selected and included in the PET Model. Both the CT and PET models successfully discriminated against FFR after surgery, with the CT Model slightly outperforming the PET Model across different classifiers. The performance metrics of the RF classifier for the CT and PET models were AUC = 0.970/0.949, CA = 0.880/0.840, Precision = 0.884/0.842, Recall = 0.880/0.846, Specificity = 0.887/0.839, Sensitivity = 0.920/0.844, TP = 81.8%/83.3%, and TN = 92.9%/84.6%, respectively. Conclusions: ML-models trained on PET/CT radiomic features show promising results for predicting recurrence in patients with thymomas, which could be potentially applied in clinical practice for a better personalized treatment strategy.