Metastatic Melanoma Prognosis Prediction Using a TC Radiomic-Based Machine Learning Model: A Preliminary Study

Background/Objective: The approach to the clinical management of metastatic melanoma patients is undergoing a significant transformation. The availability of a large amount of data from medical images has made Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications an innovative and cutting-edge solution that could revolutionize the surveillance and management of these patients. In this study, we develop and validate a machine-learning model based on radiomic data extracted from a computed tomography (CT) analysis of patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). This approach was designed to accurately predict prognosis and identify the potential key factors associated with prognosis. Methods: To achieve this goal, we used radiomic pipelines to extract the quantitative features related to lesion texture, morphology, and intensity from high-quality CT images. We retrospectively collected a cohort of 58 patients with metastatic melanoma, from which a total of 60 CT series were used for model training, and 70 independent CT series were employed for external testing. Model performance was evaluated using metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (area under the curve), demonstrating particularly favorable results compared to traditional methods. Results: The model used in this study presented a ROC-AUC curve of 82% in the internal test and, in combination with AI, presented a good predictive ability regarding lesion outcome. Conclusions: Although the cohort size was limited and the data were collected retrospectively from a single institution, the findings provide a promising basis for further validation in larger and more diverse patient populations. This approach could directly support clinical decision-making by providing accurate and personalized prognostic information.