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Cardiac Arrest Mortality Across Time and Space: A National Analysis with Forecasts to 2035
Noman Khalid1, Muhammad Abdullah2, Sabrina Clare Higgins3
1Department of Internal Medicine, New York Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, Brooklyn, NY 11215, USA.
Journal of Clinical Medicine
|July 29, 2025
Summary
Cardiac arrest mortality declined sharply until 2001, then slowed before an uptrend. Future predictions suggest a stable, slow downtrend in cardiac arrest deaths by 2035, emphasizing targeted public health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Cardiology
Background:
- Cardiac arrest (CA) presents a significant public health challenge with diverse mortality trends.
- Understanding CA mortality patterns is crucial for effective healthcare planning and intervention strategies.
- This study analyzes CA mortality trends in the USA from 1999 to 2023 and forecasts future trends.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze temporal trends in cardiac arrest-related mortality in the USA.
- To identify demographic and regional disparities in cardiac arrest mortality.
- To predict future cardiac arrest mortality trends up to 2035.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 365,608 cardiac arrest deaths (ICD-10: I46) in the USA (1999-2023).
- Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) standardized to the 2000 U.S. Census.
- Joinpoint regression for trend analysis (Annual Percentage Change - APC) and ARIMA modeling for predictions.
Main Results:
- A sharp decline in AAMR until 2001 (APC: -10.35%), followed by a slower decline until 2013 (APC: -2.91%), and a subsequent gradual uptrend.
- Males and African Americans exhibited the highest AAMRs. The South region reported the highest AAMR.
- Predictive analysis indicates a potential stable, slow downtrend in AAMR by 2035 (4.28).
Conclusions:
- Significant shifts in cardiac arrest mortality trends necessitate adaptive public health strategies.
- Disparities in mortality rates among demographic groups and regions require targeted interventions.
- Future projections highlight the ongoing need for robust healthcare planning to mitigate cardiac arrest impact.
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