Cardiac Arrest Mortality Across Time and Space: A National Analysis with Forecasts to 2035

Background: Cardiac arrest remains a significant public health challenge with variable mortality trends across different demographics and regions, affecting healthcare planning and intervention strategies. We conducted this study to analyze cardiac arrest-related mortality trends from 1999 to 2023 and predict future trends up to 2035. Methods: This study analyzed data from 1999 to 2023, focusing on cardiac arrest as the primary cause of death (ICD-10: I46). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were standardized according to the 2000 U.S. Census. Joinpoint regression was utilized to calculate annual percentage change (APC), and an ARIMA model with Python 3.10 was used for mortality predictions. Results: A total of 365,608 cardiac arrest-related deaths were recorded in the USA from 1999 to 2023. There was a sharp decline in mortality rate until 2001 (APC: -10.35, p < 0.05), followed by a slowed decline until 2013 (APC: -2.91, p < 0.05), and then a gradual uptrend. Males exhibited a higher AAMR (5.8, 95% CI: 5.8-5.9) compared to females (4.2, 95% CI: 4.1-4.2). African Americans had the highest AAMR (8.9, 95% CI: 8.9-9), followed by Caucasians (4.8, 95% CI: 4.8-4.9) and American Indians (3.5, 95% CI: 3.3-3.7). The South region of the US had the highest AAMR, followed by the Northeast, Midwest, and West. Alabama exhibited the highest AAMR, followed by Nevada and Hawaii. Predictive analysis suggests a potential stable slow downtrend in mortality rates by 2035 (AAMR: 4.28, 95% CI: -1.8-10.4). Conclusions: The observed trends and future predictions underscore the importance of targeted public health interventions and healthcare planning to address cardiac arrest mortality.