Spatiotemporal Distribution and Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Outbreak Cases in Uganda for the Period 2010-2023

This paper describes the spatiotemporal distribution and risk factors of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Uganda for the period of 2010 through 2023. The study utilized a comprehensive dataset from monthly reports (2010-2023) from District Veterinary Officers (DVOs), the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), and the Food and Agriculture Organization, Uganda. Using GPS coordinates, ASF cases were mapped using QGIS to show ASF distribution and spread in Uganda. Moran's I analysis was used to delineate clusters of ASF. A total of 1521 ASF cases were recorded. The data show that cases of ASF were disseminated throughout the country, with more cases of ASF documented in the central region and border districts (hotspots for ASF), and few cases were reported in Acholi, Karamoja, and Lango, Ankole, West Nile, and Kigezi sub-regions. The time series analysis revealed incidences of ASF disease occurring year-round; notable peak cases were observed in some districts, and districts with ≥30,000 pigs reported higher cases of ASF. The Moran's I (≥1) analysis showed that ASF is either aggregated (p = 0.01), especially in central districts bordering Tanzania and lake shores, or sporadic in occurrence. The disease was present in 66% of the districts, with ASF occurring throughout the year. More cases were aggregated in central and border districts and districts with large pig populations (≥30,000). Sporadic cases were reported in districts bordering the DRC, Sudan, Kenya, the lake shores, Karamoja, Acholi, and Lango sub-regions.