[Prognostic significance of a preoperative risk check list]

The perioperative risk of lethal complications amounts to 0.02 to 0.4% dependent on different investigators. A further decrease of this perioperative risk has failed to occur in spite of most sophisticated methods of anesthesiology. We desire a safe classification of risk scores in order to calculate the prognosis of the individual patient who is scheduled for operation and anaesthesia. 15 anamnestical, clinical and blood chemistry data of 700 patients planned for general surgery were registered, intra- and postoperative complications were documented, and by means of statistical methods (discriminant analysis) evaluated. The patients' data were registered from the date of premedication to discharge or to four weeks after operation. To define the complications they were classified as mild, moderate and severe complications. The 15 variables used show a calculated risk prognosis of 40% for mild, 57% for moderate and 79% for severe complications. We find a very good correlation of the calculated versus observed risk of complications. The risk of mild complications are underestimated and severe complications overestimated.