Post-subsidy Era: Potential for Carbon Pricing in Industrial Fisheries among Global Major Fishing Countries

Industrial fishing's harmful subsidies fuel both a fish stock crisis and rising greenhouse gas emissions, even as calls for a global ban by the World Trade Organization persist amid slow progress. This study employs the framework of climate policy stringency assessment to examine fisheries subsidy reform through a carbon pricing lens. Using emissions, political, and economic data, this study proposes the Objective Fisheries Carbon Pricing Intention (OFCPI) index for the 19 largest fishing nations. Supported by a Monte Carlo simulation, the results reveal that except for Denmark and Iceland, potential carbon revenues seldom offset the scale of harmful subsidies, frequently resulting in substantial shortfall. The findings suggest that policy change is primarily constrained by inadequate driving forces and objective limitations rather than by overt resistance. To address these challenges, we propose a fishery carbon pricing framework based on downstream emissions trading and individual transferable quotas, which offers a promising strategy for gradually eliminating harmful subsidies while promoting sustainable fisheries, mitigating climate impacts, and reconciling economic realities with environmental imperatives.