Can success in the surgical residency be predicted from preresidency evaluation?

Sixty-two residents entered the general surgical residency over a 10-year period, and 42 completed it. When the 20 who were dismissed from the program were compared by discriminant analysis to those who completed it successfully, it was found that Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) membership, high class rank, clinical honors, and publications predicted success with 89% accuracy. Ten of the 42 who completed the program were rated as outstanding, 22 were average and 10 below average. No subjective or objective preresidency selection data correlated with later chief resident performance.