Factors predicting myopia incidence in China and Europe

Area of Science:

• Ophthalmology
• Population Health
• Genetics

Background:

• Myopia incidence is a growing global health concern.
• Predictive models are crucial for early intervention and prevention strategies.
• Understanding ethnic and regional differences in myopia development is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive model for myopia incidence in Chinese and European children.
• To identify key risk factors associated with myopia onset.
• To compare myopia incidence and predictive factor efficacy between ethnicities.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal analysis of data from 4405 non-myopic children across UK, Sweden, and China.
• Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were employed.
• Evaluated predictors included age, sex, parental myopia, cycloplegic spherical equivalent (SE), axial length (AL), and axial length/corneal radius of curvature (AL/CR).

Main Results:

• Myopia incidence by 24 months was 18.8% in Chinese and 6.7% in European children.
• Key risk factors identified: Chinese ethnicity, younger age, female sex, parental myopia, less hyperopic SE, and higher AL/CR.
• Spherical equivalent (SE) demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy (C-statistic 0.90).

Conclusions:

• Spherical equivalent (SE) is the most significant predictor of myopia incidence across both ethnicities.
• While predictive factors are generally similar, Chinese children face a higher risk and require a greater hyperopic reserve.
• The findings support the development of ethnicity-specific predictive tools for myopia incidence.