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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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Systemic and dynamic risk analysis of drilling construction based on bayesian network and system dynamics model.
Jinhao Zhang1,2, Lirong Wu3,4,5,6,7,8, Tao Zhang1,2
1Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Depositional Mineralization & Sedimentary Mineral, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China.
Scientific Reports
|August 1, 2025
Summary
This study introduces a combined Bayesian network (BN) and system dynamics (SD) approach for drilling construction risk assessment. Equipment integrity, geological conditions, and operational skills are identified as the primary risks, enhancing safety and sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Engineering
- Risk Management
- Geotechnical Engineering
Background:
- Drilling construction is vital for resource extraction and information gathering.
- Construction risks impact project safety, economy, and sustainability.
- Traditional risk assessment methods lack dynamic and systematic analysis capabilities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a comprehensive risk analysis method for drilling construction.
- To couple static and dynamic risk factor analysis.
- To improve drilling safety and project sustainability.
Main Methods:
- Established a 5-dimension, 20-indicator evaluation system using expert interviews and field investigations.
- Employed entropy weight method and expert scoring for system empowerment.
- Constructed a three-layer Bayesian network (BN) and a system dynamics (SD) model with 5 feedback loops.
Main Results:
- Identified key risk factors: equipment integrity (59%), geological conditions (55%), and operational skills (51%).
- Coupled static (BN) and dynamic (SD) analyses for comprehensive risk assessment.
- Validated the model's efficacy through application to an actual drilling scenario.
Conclusions:
- The BN-SD integrated model provides a robust framework for probability prediction and process optimization in complex drilling construction.
- Offers enhanced risk analysis for drilling safety, particularly under challenging geological conditions.
- Contributes a theoretical foundation for systematic and dynamic risk management in engineering projects.
Keywords:
Bayesian networkDrilling constructionEntropy weight method (EWM)Risk analysisSystem dynamicsMore Related Videos
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