Impact of the May 2024 floods on childhood immunization coverage in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

In May 2024, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil faced severe flooding, disrupting essential health services. This study assessed the impact of these floods on vaccination coverage rates in affected municipalities.

This ecological study analyzed vaccination data from all 497 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul (January-December 2024), including the entire eligible population of children scheduled for three routine vaccines (pentavalent, measles-mumps-rubella, and hepatitis A). Municipalities were classified by official calamity status (78 with calamity, 419 without). Linear regression analysis compared vaccination coverage across pre-flood (January-April), flood (May), and post-flood (June-September) periods.

The study included 111,973 children, representing the complete target population for vaccination in the state. Annual mean coverage was 93.44 %, with significant differences between calamity (90.33 %) and non-calamity municipalities (96.29 %; p < 0.001). During May, coverage decreased dramatically, particularly in calamity areas (63.05 % vs 77.74 %, p < 0.001), representing a 26.58 percentage-point reduction from pre-flood levels compared to 17.78 points in other areas. By June-September, coverage returned to pre-disaster levels, though geographic disparities persisted.

This analysis demonstrates the immediate negative impact of flooding on childhood immunization, particularly in calamity-declared areas, while highlighting vaccination system recovery capacity. Findings emphasize the need for specific immunization strategies in disaster response planning during climate emergencies.