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Bounded environmental stochasticity generates secondary Allee thresholds.

Sebastian J Schreiber1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Populations with Allee effects can persist despite bounded environmental fluctuations, not just inevitable extinction. Realistic models reveal two thresholds for population persistence and stochastic extinction risk.

Keywords:
Allee effectsEnvironmental stochasticityExtinctionMate limitation,PersistencePopulation dynamicsPredation

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • The Allee effect describes a critical population density below which extinction is probable.
  • Classical models often assume normal environmental variation, predicting inevitable extinction.
  • Realistic environmental fluctuations are bounded and not always normally distributed.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze population dynamics under Allee effects with bounded environmental fluctuations.
  • To investigate the impact of realistic environmental variation on population persistence.
  • To develop more accurate models for conservation and management.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized piecewise deterministic Markov models (PDMPs).
  • Incorporated finite-state Markov chains for environmental dynamics.
  • Analyzed population persistence through threshold densities and stochastic bistability.

Main Results:

  • Identified two threshold densities: one for deterministic extinction, one for deterministic persistence.
  • Demonstrated stochastic bistability at intermediate densities, with probabilities of extinction or persistence.
  • Found persistence impossible when carrying capacity in one environment falls below the Allee threshold in another.

Conclusions:

  • Bounded environmental fluctuations significantly alter population persistence predictions compared to classical models.
  • Realistic environmental modeling is crucial for accurate conservation and management strategies.
  • Non-monotonic effects of environment on growth rates can lead to persistence challenges.