Global recruitment patterns and placebo responses in clinical trials of rheumatoid arthritis

Placebo effects pose significant challenges in clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Understanding how socioeconomic factors of recruiting countries influence placebo responses is crucial for improving clinical trial design and outcomes. Here, we investigated the impact of global recruitment patterns on placebo responses in randomised controlled trials of RA.

We analysed 124 trials (14 272 patients) investigating targeted therapeutics in RA and assessed how global recruitment patterns are related to placebo response rates using the per-capita gross national income (GNI; weighted by recruiting centres/country) as proxy for socioeconomic status in linear mixed models. Primary outcome was the American College of Rheumatology 20% response placebo response rate. Other socioeconomic metrics utilised were the Human Development Index and out-of-pocket health expenditures. Findings were validated using patient-level data from one global in randomised controlled trial.

We identified a negative association of GNI and placebo response rates across all trials (β = -3.7% placebo response per 10 000 international dollars; 95% CI: -5.61 to -1.80; P < .001). Results were confirmed using alternative metrics as well as using geographic data on individual patient level. Importantly, we could demonstrate a meaningful difference of this association when compared to active treatment responses.

Our findings indicate that recruiting patients from lower-income countries is associated with higher placebo response rates, whereas active treatment responses remain stable. This may be driven by incentives to recruit patients into trials, such as limited access to therapies in less affluent countries. Addressing these factors is critical for improving trial design and ensuring accurate efficacy assessments.