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A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis
Jin Yu Chen1, Qian Yang1, Li Rong Dai1
1Department of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No. 218 Ji-Xi Road, Hefei, 230022, Anhui Province, P R China.
Italian Journal of Pediatrics
|August 2, 2025
Summary
Predicting prognosis in infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is crucial. A new nomogram uses five key factors to identify infants with surgical NEC who may have a poor outcome, aiding early intervention.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Surgery
- Neonatal Medicine
- Clinical Prediction Modeling
Background:
- Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a serious condition in infants.
- Surgical intervention for NEC can improve outcomes but carries risks.
- Predicting prognosis in surgical NEC is vital for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a nomogram for predicting prognosis in infants with surgical NEC.
- To identify independent risk factors associated with poor outcomes in surgical NEC.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 189 infants with surgical NEC.
- Logistic regression to identify independent risk factors.
- Construction and validation of a predictive nomogram.
Main Results:
- Five independent predictors identified: gestational age, patent ductus arteriosus, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, serum chloride, and post-operative pH.
- The nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminative ability (AUC=0.842).
- High concordance indices in training (0.842) and validation (0.870) groups.
Conclusions:
- A novel nomogram effectively predicts prognosis in infants with surgical NEC.
- The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk infants.
- Provides valuable clinical reference for managing surgical NEC.
