Temporal variation in the association between heatwave and mortality from mental disorders: population-based evidence...

Prolonged hot weather poses a threat to mental health. However, little is known about whether patients with mental disorders have adapted to prolonged hot weather, namely a heatwave. We aimed to analyse temporal patterns in the effect of heatwaves on mental disorders and decompose the effect of heatwave components.

We analysed the impact of heatwave on mental disorder deaths in Shanghai, China between 2008-21, using a case-crossover analysis combined with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model. We decomposed the effect of the heatwave into two components, including the main effect from heatwave intensity and the added effect from heatwave duration. We also examined subgroup analyses by individual characteristics (gender, age, and education).

We analysed a total of 9953 mental disorder deaths. Heatwaves, including the main and added effects, were associated with an increased risk of death from mental disorders, with a higher risk from the main effect. For temporal variation, the main effect of heatwaves on overall mental disorder mortality declined over time, while an opposite trend was observed for suicide and dementia. In contrast, the added effect of heatwaves on total mental disorders, suicide, and dementia increased over time, whereas a decreasing trend was observed for schizophrenia. Regarding the number of deaths attributable to heatwaves, the main and added effects together accounted for 3.5 deaths per 100 000 population in total mental disorders, with about 37% attributable to the added effect. Elderly individuals and those with lower educational attainment were more vulnerable to heatwave exposures than their counterparts.

This study suggests that heatwave intensity and duration are both risk factors for death from mental disorders, without obvious evidence of adaptation to heatwaves in total mental disorders, suicide, and dementia.