Primary Tumour Burden Score: A Novel Staging Parameter for Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma after Neoadjuvant...

This study aims to develop a prognostic predictor that substitutes the current ypT-category based on the hypothesis that posttreatment tumour status can be represented by pretreatment tumour status and its changes during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

This retrospective cohort study included oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients undergoing nCRT followed by surgery from 1 January 2010 to 2 February 2019. Eligible patients from the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University, were enrolled in the training cohort (n = 187), and from the Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Lu'an Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, the validation cohort (n = 78). The primary tumour burden score (PTBS), calculated by multiplying the percentage of residual primary cancer cells and the pretreatment pathological T stage (prepT stage) after neoadjuvant therapy, was categorized into 3 groups using cutoff values of 0.20 and 2.80 (PTBS stage 1: ≤0.20; stage 2: 0.20-2.80; stage 3: >2.80).

Of the 187 patients included in the training cohort (158 men [84.5%]; median age at surgery, 62 [interquartile range, 56-67] years). The PTBS staging model outperformed the traditional parameters in terms of discriminatory power and goodness of fit (5-year area under the curve: PTBS vs ypT, prepT, cT, tumour regression grade (TRG), 0.720 vs 0.665, 0.623, 0.500, 0.664; Akaike's information criterion: PTBS vs ypT, prepT, cT, TRG, 736.03 vs 756.70, 762.72, 770.15, 756.34). Multivariable analysis indicated that PTBS independently predicted OS. Similar findings were observed in the validation cohort.

The PTBS stage showed superior prognostic discriminatory ability compared with traditional primary lesion stage parameters, suggesting its potential to serve as a valuable supplement to the current ypT-category. However, validation in larger, multicenter cohorts is needed to confirm its clinical utility.

NCT05839002.