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The evolution of comorbidities in chronic diseases among Chinese middle-aged and elderly people: Evidence from the

Zihui Zhang¹, Chuhui Hu¹, Yufeng Cai¹

¹Department of Biomedical Informatics, School of Life Sciences, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.

|August 4, 2025

Abstract

Background:

The comorbidity of chronic diseases among middle-aged and elderly people is a global public health concern that has attracted great attention in recent years. It is crucial to explore the evolutionary pattern of chronic disease comorbidity in Chinese middle-aged and elderly people and to reveal the developmental trajectory of chronic diseases in this population.

Methods:

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS 2015-2020) were utilized for the fixed cohort analysis. Based on the prevalence information of 14 chronic diseases (including hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, cancer, chronic lung diseases, liver disease, heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, stomach diseases, emotional problems, memory-related diseases, arthritis, and asthma) among 10,089 participants aged ≥45 years, association rules and cluster analysis were used to identify trends and trajectories of comorbidities in the middle-aged and elderly populations in China.

Results:

The analysis revealed that the comorbidity rate of the 14 chronic diseases showed a consistent annual increase from 2015-2020. By 2020, over 85% of patients diagnosed with a single chronic condition exhibited concurrent multimorbidity. This epidemiological progression was paralleled by a progressive increase in detected disease associations: binary comorbidities rose from three significant associations in 2015-10 in 2020, whereas higher-order combinations expanded from one ternary association in 2015-35 ternary and 18 quaternary associations by 2020. Notably, hypertension maintained a central position across all identified comorbidity clusters. The comorbidity patterns identified in 2015 included respiratory, liver and kidney, and cardio-cerebral comorbidity patterns and cancer and emotional problems. The comorbidity patterns identified in 2018 included respiratory, liver and kidney, cerebrovascular, and cardiovascular metabolic comorbidity patterns. The comorbidity pattern in 2020 was the same as that in 2018.

Conclusion:

The issues of comorbidities in chronic diseases among Chinese middle-aged and elderly people is significant, with observed variations in the comorbidity patterns across different time periods. The development of clinical assessment and management guidelines for chronic diseases comorbid with key conditions, such as hypertension and dyslipidemia, is recommended. These guidelines aim to facilitate the co-management, co-treatment, and co-reduction of multiple diseases among middle-aged and elderly people.

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