Bringing Together Indigenous Knowledge and Simulation Modelling to Assess Cumulative Impacts to Indigenous Land Use
Matthew Carlson1, Justin Straker2, Kevan Berg2
1Integral Ecology Group, Ltd, Duncan, BC, Canada. mcarlson@iegconsulting.com.
Environmental Management
|August 5, 2025
Summary
Environmental impact assessments in Canada struggle with cumulative effects on Indigenous lands due to flawed baselines and limited scope. A case study shows industrial development significantly reduced Indigenous land use opportunities, necessitating better assessment tools.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Indigenous Studies
- Geospatial Analysis
Background:
- Environmental impact assessment (EIA) in Canada faces challenges in addressing cumulative effects on Indigenous territories.
- Deficiencies include inappropriate baselines, narrow spatial/temporal scopes, and marginalization of Indigenous knowledge.
- This results in EIAs that strain Indigenous communities without resolving their concerns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a more comprehensive cumulative effects assessment for Indigenous land use.
- To integrate Indigenous knowledge with simulation modeling for improved EIA.
- To address the limitations of current EIA processes concerning Indigenous territories.
Main Methods:
- Case study of the Fort McKay Métis Nation (FMMN) in northeastern Alberta.
- Integration of Indigenous knowledge through focus groups and interviews.
- Simulation modeling to reconstruct landscape changes over 120 years (103,000 km² region).
Main Results:
- Significant decline in FMMN members' ability to hunt, fish, trap, and harvest.
- Industrial footprint expanded to over 5000 km², primarily from oil sands and forestry.
- Reduced land use opportunity due to industrial footprint, protected areas, and military sites, despite minor habitat impacts.
Conclusions:
- Current EIA practices are inadequate for assessing cumulative effects on Indigenous land use.
- Combining Indigenous knowledge and simulation modeling provides a more robust assessment.
- A web application was developed to aid FMMN in assessing development impacts against a natural baseline.
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