Identifying the climate sensitivity of infectious diseases: a conceptual framework

Infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to public health, affecting billions and straining health-care systems worldwide. There is growing concern over how anthropogenic climate change might aggravate the global burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. In this Personal View, we propose a framework for understanding what makes an infectious disease climate-sensitive. Drawing on existing literature, we identify three key characteristics of climate-sensitive diseases-seasonality, geographical boundaries, and interannual variation linked to climate phenomena. We define climate sensitivity as the responsiveness of pathogen, host, and disease vector traits (a measurable feature of an organism that affects its fitness) to changes in climate, regardless of whether these changes arise from natural variability or anthropogenic forcing of the climate. We discuss how infectious diseases show different degrees of climate sensitivity (from high to low), with the recognition that classifications of infectious diseases might evolve as new research emerges. We review evidence from ecological and modelling studies showing the non-linear and delayed effects of climate variability and change on pathogen, vector, and host traits, highlighting the importance of both climatic and non-climatic factors, such as population immunity, globalisation, and poverty, in identifying disease distribution and driving transmission patterns. We highlight that infectious disease transmission risk is inextricably linked to planetary health issues. Finally, we discuss how leveraging this understanding can enhance infectious disease outbreak prevention, preparedness, and response through the development of climate services for health, including early warning systems, thereby improving climate change adaptation strategies and health system resilience.