Identifying the climate sensitivity of infectious diseases: a conceptual framework

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Environmental Science
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Infectious diseases represent a significant global health challenge, impacting billions and straining healthcare systems.
• Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly recognized as a factor that may worsen the burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a framework for understanding the climate sensitivity of infectious diseases.
• To identify key characteristics and influencing factors of climate-sensitive diseases.

Main Methods:

• Literature review of existing research on climate-sensitive infectious diseases.
• Analysis of ecological and modeling studies examining climate variability and change effects.
• Definition of climate sensitivity based on pathogen, host, and vector trait responsiveness.

Main Results:

• Climate-sensitive diseases exhibit seasonality, defined geographical boundaries, and interannual variation linked to climate phenomena.
• Disease transmission is influenced by both climatic factors and non-climatic elements like population immunity, globalization, and poverty.
• Climate change impacts pathogen, vector, and host traits in non-linear and delayed ways.

Conclusions:

• Infectious disease transmission risk is fundamentally linked to planetary health.
• Developing climate services for health, including early warning systems, can enhance outbreak prevention and response.
• Understanding climate sensitivity is crucial for climate change adaptation and strengthening health system resilience.