Population Forecasting with Alzheimer's Disease in Iran Using a System Dynamic Model
Vahidreza Borhaninejad1, Milad Ahmadi Gohari2, Yunes Jahani2
1Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Iranian Journal of Public Health
|August 6, 2025
Summary
Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevalence in Iran is rising due to an aging population. Projections indicate a significant increase in AD cases among the elderly by 2029, necessitating proactive healthcare planning.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Neurology
- Public Health
Background:
- Iran faces a growing challenge of Alzheimer's disease (AD) prevalence.
- This increase is primarily driven by a demographic shift towards an aging population.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the prevalence and number of Alzheimer's disease cases in Iran by 2029.
- To project future trends of AD within the context of Iran's aging demographic.
Main Methods:
- Utilized dynamic modeling techniques for projection.
- Developed two interconnected models: a demographic model for population growth and an AD evaluation model.
- Analyzed factors influencing AD trends in Iran's aging population.
Main Results:
- The elderly population (over 60) in Iran is projected to increase from 9.1 million (2020) to 13.7 million (2029).
- The number of Alzheimer's disease patients is predicted to rise from approximately 464,400 (2020) to 729,900 by 2029.
Conclusions:
- Forecasting AD trends is critical for policymakers, especially in developing nations.
- Findings support assessing economic burdens and inform healthcare planning and resource allocation for Alzheimer's disease.
- Highlights the need for proactive strategies to manage the growing impact of AD on healthcare systems and economies.
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