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Regularization of a conceptual model for Dansgaard-Oeschger events
Bryony Hobden1, Peter Ashwin1, Paul D L Ritchie1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|August 6, 2025
Summary
Researchers modified a model of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, sudden North Atlantic warmings. The new model shows potential for early warning signals of these climate shifts, though with short time horizons.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Dynamics
- Nonlinear Systems
Background:
- Dansgaard-Oeschger events are abrupt North Atlantic warmings during glacial periods.
- These events exhibit a saw-tooth pattern of rapid warming followed by slow cooling.
- Previous models reproduced event characteristics but lacked early warning signals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
- To regularize a conceptual model by introducing a fast dynamic variable.
- To explore the potential for predicting abrupt climate shifts.
Main Methods:
- Regularization of a non-autonomous, process-based model.
- Inclusion of a fast dynamic variable to enable smooth transitions.
- Analysis of model output for evidence of early warning signals.
Main Results:
- The regularized model exhibits smooth switching between climate states.
- Evidence of early warning signals was found for the transition from slow to rapid cooling.
- The addition of a fast timescale may shorten the prediction horizon for these signals.
Conclusions:
- The modified model demonstrates potential for detecting precursors to abrupt climate change.
- Early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events are plausible but may have limited predictive time.
- Further research is needed to refine prediction horizons and model accuracy.
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