Impact of geomagnetic disturbances and air pollution on total mortality in South Korea

Short-term geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), quantified using the Kp index, are associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality. This study aimed to investigate the impact of GMD on total, CVD, stroke, and myocardial infarction (MI) mortality in South Korea within the 2001-2019 period. Using generalized additive models, daily Kp index and mortality data were employed to assess the impact of GMD on mortality, with temporal trends and temperature included as confounders for adjustment. Given air pollution's potential confounding role, we adjusted for PM₁₀ in sensitivity analyses evaluating Kp index effects on daily mortality. Mixed-effects meta-analysis was also performed to estimate overall seasonal mortality risk, accounting for spatial heterogeneity across districts. The results obtained showed a significant association between a one-standard-deviation increase in the z-score of the daily Kp index and an increase in total mortality across all seasons, with the strongest effects observed in spring (0.33 %) and autumn (0.32 %), followed by winter (0.29 %) and summer (0.25 %). Based on the daily Kp index values, CVD-related deaths increased significantly in all seasons except summer, stroke-related deaths in all except winter, and MI-related deaths only in winter. Further, this GMD-mortality association remained significant when daily Kp index values were replaced with moving averages and even after adjusting for PM₁₀. These seasonal patterns might result from stronger GMD in spring and autumn, driven by Sun-Earth positional changes. Overall, the findings of this study provide valuable insights regarding the public health implications of GMD with respect to mortality in South Korea.