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Dynamic Family Size Preferences During the COVID-19 Mortality Crisis: A Research Note
Letícia J Marteleto1, Sneha Kumar2
1Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Demography
|August 7, 2025
Summary
During the COVID-19 pandemic, women with children increased desired family size amid rising community deaths, while childless women
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Epidemiology
- Sociology
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global health and societal behaviors.
- Fertility preferences are sensitive to public health crises and mortality exposure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how family size preferences changed for women in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To analyze the differential impact of COVID-19 mortality exposure on women with and without children.
Main Methods:
- Utilized panel survey data from 2,520 women (aged 18-34) across 94 municipalities in Pernambuco, Brazil (2020-2021).
- Employed individual fixed-effects regressions to link changes in municipality-level COVID-19 death rates with shifts in desired family size.
- Controlled for individual/family COVID-19 infection status and sociodemographic factors.
Main Results:
- Women without children at baseline did not alter their desired family size in response to pandemic mortality.
- Women with children showed a small but statistically significant increase in desired family size as municipality COVID-19 death rates rose.
- Fertility preferences varied by parental status, indicating distinct responses to pandemic-related mortality.
Conclusions:
- Women with children may have sought to consolidate or expand their families in response to community loss during the pandemic.
- Findings highlight the complex interplay between epidemic-related mortality and fertility decisions in a middle-income country.
- Contributes to understanding contextual influences on fertility preferences during public health emergencies.
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