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Updated: Sep 12, 2025

Simulating Temperature in a Soil Incubation Experiment
Published on: October 28, 2022
Rethinking the interpretation of spring phenological temperature sensitivity
Manuel G Walde1, Yann Vitasse1,2, E M Wolkovich3
1Research Unit Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, 8903 Zürich Switzerland.
None:
Recent publications showed a substantial decline in spring phenological responses of temperate trees to temperature increase and suggested this was evidence that warming has caused chilling and/or photoperiod to constrain phenology. We show that the apparent decrease in phenological sensitivity is mathematically expected under warming climates without any constraints from photoperiod or chilling. We substantiate the proposed mechanism using data from controlled conditions, simulations, and a long-term cherry blooming record series.
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