Sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model of Alzheimer's disease progression unveils important causal pathways

Mathematical models serve as essential tools to investigate brain aging, the onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its progression. By studying the representation of the complex dynamics of brain aging processes, such as amyloid beta (Aβ) deposition, tau tangles, neuro-inflammation, and neuronal death. Sensitivity analyses provide a powerful framework for identifying the underlying mechanisms that drive disease progression. In this study, we present the first local sensitivity analysis of a recent and comprehensive multiscale ODE-based model of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) that originates from our group. As such, it is one of the most complex model that captures the multifactorial nature of AD, incorporating neuronal, pathological, and inflammatory processes at the nano, micro and macro scales. This detailed framework enables realistic simulation of disease progression and identification of key biological parameters that influence system behavior. Our analysis identifies the key drivers of disease progression across patient profiles, providing insight into targeted therapeutic strategies.

We investigated a recent ODE-based model composed of 19 variables and 75 parameters, developed by our group, to study Alzheimer's disease dynamics. We performed single- and paired-parameter sensitivity analyses, focusing on three key outcomes: neural density, amyloid beta plaques, and tau proteins.

Our findings suggest that the parameters related to glucose and insulin regulation could play an important role in neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Second, the parameters that have the most important impact on cognitive decline are not completely the same depending on sex and APOE status.

These results underscore the importance of incorporating a multifactorial approach tailored to demographic characteristics when considering strategies for AD treatment. This approach is essential to identify the factors that contribute significantly to neural loss and AD progression.