A Spatiotemporal Causal Model for Revealing Developmental Changes in Infants' Brain Effective Connectivity Networks...

The infant's brain undergoes significant structural and physiological transformations during the first year of life. Although extensive research has explored brain development during this critical period, most studies relied on traditional functional connectivity rather than effective connectivity (EC).

We proposed a novel spatiotemporal Granger causality model for discovering causal relationships from time series. Different from existing deep learning-based models that infer Granger causality from the first-layer weights of the neural network, our model learns the spatiotemporal feature from time series and imposes a sparsity-inducing penalty on the feature to extract Granger causality.

Numerical experiments showed that our model achieved an average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 0.879 and an Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.828 on simulated datasets, outperforming baselines by up to 5.7% in AUROC and 3.9% in AUPRC. When applied to resting-state EEG from healthy infants, the model revealed distinct age-related patterns in EC networks. Specifically, right-hemispheric lateralization was observed between 3 and 9 months, which subsequently shifted toward hemispheric symmetry between 9 and 12 months. The development pattern of EC followed a posterior-to-anterior trajectory, starting in the occipital and advancing through the parietal, temporal, and frontal regions, consistent with the known myelination process. Network property analysis revealed that, as infants grew, their brain networks exhibited higher clustering coefficients and global efficiency along with reduced shortest path lengths.

Our study is the first to uncover changes in infants' brain EC network during the first year of life using the causal discovery approach, offering novel insights for investigating developmental trajectories during early infancy.