Improving the global prediction of shipping emissions by modelling the effects of ambient conditions
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Ambient conditions like waves and wind increase ship CO2 emissions by an average of 8.6%. This study models these effects, revealing significant regional variations, especially in the Arctic.
Area Of Science
- Environmental science
- Marine engineering
- Climate change research
Background
- Ship resistance is traditionally estimated in calm water with a sea margin.
- Ambient conditions significantly impact ship performance and emissions.
- Existing models often oversimplify the effects of environmental factors on shipping.
Purpose Of The Study
- To update the STEAM ship emission model with comprehensive environmental data.
- To quantify the impact of ambient conditions on ship resistance, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions.
- To analyze the contribution of individual environmental variables (waves, currents, ice, wind) to global shipping emissions.
Main Methods
- Integrated sea wave, sea current, sea ice, and wind data with ship operational data in the STEAM model.
- Simulated global CO2 emissions from shipping between 2014-2021.
- Estimated the separate contribution of each environmental variable to total emissions.
Main Results
- Ambient conditions caused an average 8.6% increase in annual CO2 emissions from shipping.
- Sea waves were the largest contributor (+5.4%-+6.6%), followed by wind resistance (+2.2%-+2.4%).
- Emissions increased by up to 59% in the Arctic Ocean due to ambient conditions, highlighting regional disparities.
Conclusions
- A constant sea margin is insufficient for accurate regional and seasonal emission estimates.
- Incorporating real-time weather and sea state data is crucial for precise regional inventories.
- Considering ambient conditions is vital for accurate open ocean emission assessments and climate modeling.
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