Dynamic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in patients with brain abscess

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Infectious Diseases
• Medical Statistics

Background:

• Brain abscess (BA) presents significant mortality and morbidity risks.
• Limited research exists on predicting long-term survival in BA patients.
• Accurate prognostication is crucial for effective clinical management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify independent predictors of long-term survival in brain abscess patients.
• To develop and validate a dynamic nomogram for individualized prognostication of BA survival.
• To provide a tool for enhanced clinical decision-making in BA management.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective cohort study of 205 brain abscess patients.
• Analysis of demographic, clinical, laboratory, and imaging data.
• Cox regression for prognostic factor identification; nomogram developed and validated using C-index, calibration plots, and ROC curves.

Main Results:

• Identified age, Karnofsky performance status, hemoculture results, coagulopathy, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, bandemia, and occipital BA as predictors.
• Developed a dynamic nomogram with strong predictive performance (C-index 0.855 apparent, 0.701 validation).
• Validation confirmed the nomogram's reliability for predicting long-term survival.

Conclusions:

• A validated dynamic nomogram for predicting long-term survival in brain abscess patients has been developed.
• This interactive tool facilitates individualized risk assessment and clinical decision-making.
• Further external validation and refinement are recommended for broader applicability.