Incidence and determinants of graft failure and death with functioning graft after re-transplantation

Recent reports on allograft survival after repeat kidney transplantation (KTx) and the incidence and determinants of graft failure (GF) are lacking.

We analyzed the probability of graft failure (GF) and death with functioning graft following a primary pediatric and sequential kidney transplantation (KTx) in 4528 primary, 1155 second, 259 third, and 41 fourth KTx. We calculated the impact of relevant peri-transplant characteristics on the probability of GF and death with functioning graft (as a composite endpoint due to statistical reasons) for specific recipient profiles.

The respective unadjusted 5-year GF probabilities after first, second, third, and fourth KTx were 15%, 24%, 30%, and 40%, respectively (P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio for the composite endpoint was the highest in the first month after primary transplantation and even higher after subsequent transplantations. After second KTx, older year of transplantation, deceased donor (DD), older donor age, short primary graft survival, PRA 1-100%, and increasing HLA-DR mismatches were associated with a higher predicted outcome. The respective predicted 5-year risks for the outcome in a pediatric DD KTx recipient with 0 and 2 HLA-DR mismatches were 17% and 27% with a 30-year-old DD and 22% and 35% with a 50-year-old DD.

GF increased with subsequent KTx. GF and death with a functioning graft after second transplantation improved with calendar year of transplantation, reflecting improvements in transplant care over time. Older donor age, DD KTx, short primary graft survival, high PRA, and increasing HLA-DR mismatch were associated with a higher predicted composite outcome.