Feasibility and Challenges of Low-Carbon Transition of China's Power System

Low-carbon transition of China's power system is pivotal for global climate management. National aggregate analysis in prior work (10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0, 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012, 10.1038/s41558-019-0509-6, 10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8 , 10.1093/ooenergy/oiad009) masks the conflicts between China's power system mechanism, carbon mitigation, and economic development goals and conceals provincial heterogeneities in socioeconomic capabilities, costs, and risks. We address those issues by comparing decline in coal use and acceleration in renewable adoption rates (R_CHI) in China's provinces along with China's 2030-2060 carbon mitigation and economic development goals to that in 52 other countries at their historical fastest transformation (R_MAX) decade, based on their socioeconomic, power system structure, and mechanism conditions, and quantifying the unit-associated unemployment and stranded assets due to decline in coal use. We observed that R_CHI distributes unevenly in time and space. In time scale, the transition follows a "fast-then-slow" trajectory in terms of stranded assets, leading to higher socioeconomic and political efforts at the beginning of the process. Spatially, certain provinces face heightened risks related to stranded assets, unemployment, and energy security, underscoring the urgent need for power system reforms and equitable carbon quota allocations for a just transition. To achieve its 2030-2060 carbon targets, China must attain higher R_CHI than R_MAX, overcoming stringent socioeconomic and political challenges and entrenched system inertia.