Intolerance of uncertainty predicts paranoia over time: Evidence from a UK sample

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Psychiatry
• Clinical Psychology

Background:

• Paranoia exists on a continuum, prevalent in both clinical and non-clinical populations.
• Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) is a dispositional trait linked to negative responses to uncertainty.
• Previous research suggests IU may predict paranoia, but longitudinal data is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the longitudinal relationship between Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) and paranoia.
• To determine if IU predicts paranoia over time, independent of other factors.
• To explore differences in the IU-paranoia relationship based on IU subtypes.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal study using data from the Covid-19 Psychological Research Consortium Study (C19PRC).
• 2025 UK participants assessed across three waves over nine months.
• Path analysis and partial correlation analyses were employed.

Main Results:

• Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) consistently predicted paranoia longitudinally.
• The relationship held even after controlling for neuroticism, anxiety, and depression.
• Inhibitory IU showed a stronger association with paranoia than Prospective IU.

Conclusions:

• Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU) is a stable and independent predictor of paranoia.
• This study provides longitudinal evidence supporting the IU-paranoia link.
• IU may be a valuable target for future paranoia intervention strategies.