Natural-human interactions impact wetland pattern evolution in different environment conditions in arid regions

As a crucial component of ecosystems in arid regions, wetlands are vulnerable to climate change and human activities. However, the promoting or offsetting effects between natural and human factors on the dynamic evolution of wetland patterns in arid regions remain poorly understood. This study examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of wetlands in the Altay Prefecture of northwest China from 1990 to 2022 and explored the impact mechanisms of natural and human factors, as well as their interactions, on wetland pattern evolution. Results indicated that (1) wetlands exhibited an overall degradation trend, losing 226.03 km², and DEM can serve as a limiting factor, with a threshold of 610 m delineating high- and low-density wetland patterns; (2) Natural factors have consistently dominated wetland pattern evolution, especially in high-density wetlands, and the contribution from natural factors to wetland patterns has decreased since reaching its peak in 2010 (34.96 %) while the influence of human factors has continued to rise (from 2.3 % to 7.16 %); (3)Human activities in low-density wetlands had positive impacts, which work in synergy with natural factors to promote wetland stability (The contribution from their interaction was greater than 0). In high-density wetland areas, excessive exploitation of wetland resources diminished the positive influence of natural factors, resulting in their contributions offsetting each other (The contribution was less than 0). This study further suggested that the formation and extensive distribution of wetlands in arid regions are primarily driven by the ecological hydrological processes of mountain glaciers and snow cover zones. Therefore, the ecological protection and restoration of wetlands in arid regions through nature-based solutions inevitably depend on the structure and connectivity of ecological hydrological corridors. These findings enhance our understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of wetlands in arid regions and provide a scientific basis for developing effective conservation and restoration strategies.