Wisconsin Policies Shift Handgun Purchasing Behavior 2000-2024

Firearm policies can directly impact manufacturing, sales, and accessibility of weapons. In Wisconsin, there were 3 statewide policy changes since 2011 that may have impacted firearm access: (1) legalization of carrying a concealed weapon, (2) repeal of 48-hour waiting periods to purchase a handgun, and (3) the COVID-19 pandemic stay-at-home order. This study examined the impact of these policies on handgun purchases in Wisconsin and the association with firearm-related deaths.

Background checks for handguns were examined using monthly counts (2000-2024) from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Firearm-related deaths were extracted from the Wisconsin Violent Death Reporting System (2004-2021). Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast background check levels from one policy period to the next. Annual firearm-related deaths were correlated with annual handgun background checks.

There was a significant increase in observed handgun background checks compared with that forecasted after each policy period (after carrying a concealed weapon policy: mean increase=204.3%, mean absolute percentage error=23.5; after 48-hour repeal: mean increase=12.8%; mean absolute percentage error=20.27; after COVID-19 stay-at-home order: mean increase=78.6%; mean absolute percentage error=43.20). Annual background checks were strongly correlated with annual firearm-related deaths (r=0.887).

The carrying a concealed weapon policy had the strongest long-term relationship to the increase in handgun background checks. With each policy change, background check levels increased. Greater availability of firearms increases the risk of firearm death, and the strong association of firearm purchasing with firearm-related deaths warrants attention to relevant policies in Wisconsin.