Construction of a treatment response prediction model for multiple myeloma based on multi-omics and machine learning

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematologic malignancy characterized by clonal proliferation of plasma cells and remains incurable. Patients with primary refractory multiple myeloma (PRMM) show poor response to initial induction therapy. This study aims to develop a machine learning-based model to predict treatment response in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients, in order to optimize therapeutic strategies.

NDMM and post-treatment MM patients hospitalized in the Department of Hematology, Third Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, between August 2022 and July 2023 were enrolled. Post-treatment MM patients were categorized into PRMM patients and treatment-responsive MM (TRMM) patients based on therapeutic efficacy. Serum metabolites were detected and analyzed via metabolomics. Based on the metabolomics analysis results and combined with transcriptomic sequencing data of NDMM patients from databases, differentially expressed amino acid metabolism-related genes (AAMGs) among post-treatment NDMM patients with varying therapeutic outcomes were screened. Using bioinformatics analyses and machine learning algorithms, a predictive model for treatment response in NDMM was constructed and used to identify patients at risk for PRMM.

A total of 61 patients were included: 22 NDMM, 23 TRMM, and 16 PRMM patients. Significant differences in metabolite levels were observed among the 3 groups, with differential metabolites mainly enriched in amino acid metabolism pathways. Follow-up data were available for 16 of the 22 NDMM patients, including 12 treatment responders (ND_TR group) and 4 with PRMM (ND_PR group). A total of 23 differential metabolites were identified between these 2 groups: 6 metabolites (e.g., tryptophan) were upregulated and 17 (e.g., citric acid) were downregulated in the ND_TR group. Transcriptomic data from 108 TRMM and 77 PRMM patients were analyzed to identify differentially expressed AAMGs, which were then used to construct a prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model exceeded 0.8, and AUC values in 3 external validation cohorts were all above 0.7.

This study delineated the metabolic alterations in MM patients with different treatment response, suggesting that dysregulated amino acid metabolism may be associated with poor treatment response in PRMM. By integrating metabolomics and transcriptomics, a machine learning-based predictive model was successfully established to forecast treatment response in NDMM patients.