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Population aging and corporate tax avoidance: Suppression or promotion?
1School of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi, China.
Plos One
|August 11, 2025
Summary
Population aging in China restrains corporate tax avoidance by encouraging innovation and efficiency, not stimulating it. This factor substitution effect is more significant in labor-intensive industries and firms with financial constraints.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Demographics
- Corporate Finance
Background:
- Population aging is a critical national strategic priority in China.
- Rising labor costs present challenges for businesses.
- The study explores the dual potential effects of population aging on corporate tax avoidance: a stimulating effect versus a restraining effect.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically investigate the impact of population aging on corporate tax avoidance in China.
- To identify the underlying mechanisms through which population aging influences tax avoidance.
- To analyze the heterogeneity of this impact across different firm characteristics and industries.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing data from non-financial listed companies in China's A-share market (2008-2023).
- Employing empirical examination to assess the relationship between population aging and corporate tax avoidance.
- Conducting mechanism tests and heterogeneity analysis to explore underlying effects and variations.
Main Results:
- Population aging significantly diminishes corporate tax avoidance, confirming a 'restraining effect'.
- Mechanisms include capital-labor substitution, fostering R&D innovation, and improving production efficiency.
- The inhibitory effect is stronger in labor-intensive industries and firms with financing constraints or weak financial conditions.
Conclusions:
- Population aging acts as a restraining force on corporate tax avoidance through factor substitution, innovation, and efficiency.
- Findings provide micro-level insights into the economic consequences of aging populations on corporate financial decisions.
- Offers valuable guidance for firms navigating demographic shifts and informs policy development.
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