Thirty years of the Baranyi and Roberts model: Predictions, precautions, risk assessment, and beyond

In today's world, food safety is of paramount importance. Even a slight lapse can lead to significant economic losses and place a heavy burden on the healthcare system. Over the years, multiple mathematical models have been developed to predict microbial growth in commercial foods. However, each of these models had to give up at least one of the factors, i.e., generality, realism, or precision. The Baranyi and Roberts model was proposed in the 1990s and was an extension of the logistic model. It took 'realism' into account and bridged the gap between the conditions affecting populations in nature and how they are represented on paper. The realistic attributes of the model allowed it to model, for the first time, the lag time. In this review, we have discussed the model in detail, along with its extrapolations that made it flexible. We have further discussed how the Baranyi model is still important in food safety regimes. We have also discussed how one can explain the setting up of the adjustment factor used in this model. Our literature review has revealed how the Baranyi and Roberts model continues to be relevant even after 30 years of its proposition, and further insights on the biochemical aspects of the model's assumptions might help in strengthening its predictions.