Incorporating Preprints in Systematic Reviews: A Preliminary Study of a Novel Method for Rapid Evidence Synthesis

Area of Science:

• Medical Research
• Evidence Synthesis
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Over 450,000 COVID-19 manuscripts exist, with 10% as unreviewed preprints.
• Preprints accelerate knowledge sharing but have variable quality, complicating systematic reviews.
• Timely evidence synthesis is crucial for clinical and policy decisions during health crises.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a method for including preprints in meta-analyses.
• To address the methodological gap in synthesizing rapidly emerging research.
• To support informed decision-making amidst a surge of scientific publications.

Main Methods:

• A two-stage approach for integrating preprints into meta-analyses.
• Stage A: Preprint integration via restriction/imputation with confidence weighting.
• Stage B: Assessment and adjustment for publication and reporting biases.

Main Results:

• Preliminary validation using two COVID-19 treatment case studies.
• Hydroxychloroquine showed no mortality benefit (RR 1.06 [95% CI: 0.62, 1.80]).
• Corticosteroids suggested a potential mortality benefit (RR 0.88 [95% CI: 0.62, 1.27]), aligning with existing evidence.

Conclusions:

• The proposed method efficiently synthesizes COVID-19 research, including preprints.
• This approach aids clinical and policy decisions by providing timely, synthesized evidence.
• The method offers a solution for managing the overwhelming volume of scientific literature.