Mathematical model for analysing the interplay between income, nutrition, and tuberculosis dynamics

Area of Science:

• Mathematical modeling
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Inadequate nutrition, linked to unaffordable healthy diets in low- and middle-income countries, hinders the WHO's End Tuberculosis (TB) strategy.
• Socio-economic factors like income and nutrition critically influence TB transmission dynamics and disease burden.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a mathematical framework investigating the impact of income and nutrition on TB transmission.
• To quantify the influence of these socio-economic factors on disease spread and mortality.

Main Methods:

• A compartmental model was developed, incorporating transmission, recovery, and mortality rates as functions of income and nutrition.
• The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using the next-generation matrix approach.
• Sensitivity analysis was performed using the normalized forward sensitivity index approach.

Main Results:

• Improved nutrition and higher income were shown to significantly reduce TB transmission and mortality.
• Simulations indicated that disease burden alleviation requires simultaneous improvements in both income and nutrition.
• Sensitivity analysis underscored the importance of reducing transmission rates to bring R0 below 1.

Conclusions:

• Holistic interventions targeting both nutrition and socio-economic conditions are essential for effective TB control.
• Addressing the interplay between income, nutrition, and TB is vital for public health strategies.
• Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into optimizing TB control interventions.