Climate warming drives pulsed resources and disease outbreak risk

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Climate Change

Background:

• Climate directly impacts pathogen survival and host reproduction, influencing disease spread.
• Indirect climate effects, mediated by food resources on host populations, are often overlooked in disease modeling.
• Oak tree acorn production, a key food source for wild boar, is temperature-dependent.

Purpose of the Study:

• To theoretically explore the influence of climate warming on African swine fever (ASF) dynamics in wild boar (Sus scrofa).
• To consider both direct and indirect temperature effects on disease transmission.
• To assess the relative importance of direct versus indirect climate effects on epidemic spread.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an individual-based model for theoretical exploration.
• Simulated climate warming scenarios.
• Incorporated direct effects on virus persistence and indirect effects via temperature-mediated acorn production.

Main Results:

• Climate warming directly reduces the environmental persistence of the ASF virus.
• Increased temperatures enhance acorn production, positively impacting wild boar populations.
• Integrated effects suggest a potential decrease in ASF spread under future warmer climates.

Conclusions:

• Indirect, food-mediated effects of climate change can significantly influence epidemic dynamics, potentially outweighing direct effects.
• Accurate prediction of future epidemic risks necessitates a comprehensive understanding of ecological systems, including all climatic influences.
• Future climate change may alter ASF transmission patterns in wild boar populations, highlighting the need for integrated ecological and epidemiological models.