Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting calcification of arteriovenous access in hemodialysis...

Area of Science:

• Nephrology
• Vascular Biology
• Medical Diagnostics

Background:

• Vascular calcification in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD) severely compromises vascular access function and longevity.
• Early identification of patients at risk for vascular calcification is crucial for timely interventions to maintain vascular access integrity and dialysis efficacy.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive model for arteriovenous (AV) access calcification in hemodialysis patients.
• To create a clinically applicable tool for early risk stratification of vascular calcification.

Main Methods:

• A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from 136 hemodialysis patients.
• Risk factors were identified from literature and clinical guidelines.
• A multivariate logistic regression model was developed, and a nomogram was constructed for clinical interpretation.

Main Results:

• A predictive model incorporating arteriovenous access usage time, hip circumference, and diabetes status was developed.
• The model demonstrated reliability and clinical actionability in predicting AV access calcification.
• Validation and subgroup analyses confirmed the model's robust performance.

Conclusions:

• A nomogram-based predictive model offers a simple, cost-effective, and reliable method for early vascular calcification risk assessment in HD patients.
• Monitoring hip circumference is a practical strategy for identifying high-risk individuals, enabling timely interventions to improve vascular access outcomes.