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Updated: Sep 11, 2025

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Deliberation in Guesstimation.

Vildan Salikutluk1, Frank Jäkel1

  • 1Centre for Cognitive Science, Technical University of Darmstadt.

Cognitive Science
|August 13, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Guesstimation, or estimating quantities with incomplete information, improves with deliberation. Studies show that while people are often overconfident in their guesstimation answers, a second, deliberated response significantly enhances accuracy.

Keywords:
DeliberationGuesstimationHuman experimentationJudgmentsMixed‐methodsProblem‐solving

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Artificial Intelligence

Background:

  • Real-world judgments often occur with incomplete information.
  • Guesstimation, estimating quantities without precise data, is crucial for forecasting.
  • Solving guesstimation problems enhances general problem-solving skills.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Empirically investigate human problem-solving behavior in guesstimation tasks.
  • Identify frequently used solution strategies.
  • Assess the impact of deliberation on answer quality and confidence.

Main Methods:

  • Think-aloud protocols to study problem-solving behavior.
  • A two-response paradigm: initial gut-feeling followed by a deliberated answer.
  • Eliciting confidence judgments via probability distributions.

Main Results:

  • Deliberation significantly improves the quality of guesstimation answers.
  • Participants exhibit overconfidence in their deliberated estimates.
  • Identified frequently used guesstimation solution strategies.

Conclusions:

  • Guesstimation tasks serve as valuable models for studying human deliberative judgment.
  • Findings can inform the development of AI tools to enhance forecasting.
  • Understanding guesstimation strategies can improve decision-making under uncertainty.