Predictive Value of Frailty, Comorbidity, and Patient-Reported Measures for Hospitalization or Death in Older...

Objectives: To identify clinical, functional, laboratory, and patient-reported parameters associated with medium-term risk of hospitalization or death among older adults attending a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic, and to assess the predictive performance of these measures for individual risk stratification. Methods: In this cohort study, 350 adults aged ≥65 years were assessed at baseline and followed for an average of 8 months. The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalization or all-cause mortality. Parameters assessed included frailty and comorbidity measures, functional parameters, such as gait speed and grip strength, laboratory biomarkers, and patient-reported measures, such as quality of life (QoL, assessed on a Likert scale) and the presence of depressive symptoms. Predictive performance was evaluated using univariable logistic regression and multivariable modeling. Discriminative ability was assessed via area under the ROC curve (AUC), and selected models were internally validated using repeated k-fold cross-validation. Results: Overall, 40 participants (11.4%) experienced hospitalization or death. Traditional clinical risk indicators, including frailty and comorbidity scores, were significantly associated with the outcome. Patient-reported QoL (AUC = 0.74) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) scores (AUC = 0.67) demonstrated useful overall discriminatory ability, with high specificities at optimal cut-offs, suggesting they could act as "red flags" for adverse outcomes. However, the limited sensitivities of individual predictors underscore the need for more comprehensive screening instruments with improved ability to identify at-risk individuals earlier. A multivariable model that incorporated several predictors did not outperform QoL alone (AUC = 0.79), with cross-validation confirming comparable discriminative performance. Conclusions: Patient-reported measures-particularly quality of life and depressive symptoms-are valuable predictors of hospitalization or death and may enhance traditional frailty and comorbidity assessments in outpatient geriatric care. Future work should focus on developing or integrating screening tools with greater sensitivity to optimize early risk detection and guide preventive interventions.