Predicting the Uniaxial Compressive Strength of Cement Paste: A Theoretical and Experimental Study

This study presents a progressive strength prediction model for cement paste based on the hypothesis that compressive strength is governed by the microstructural compactness of hydration products. A three-stage modeling framework was developed: (1) a semi-empirical model for pure cement paste incorporating water-to-cement ratio and paste density; (2) a density-corrected effective water-cement ratio w/ceff that accounts for the physical effects of mineral additives including fly ash, slag, and limestone powder; and (3) a hydration-informed strength model incorporating curing age and temperature through an equivalent hydration degree αte. Experimental validation using over 60 cement paste mixes demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with coefficients of determination up to 0.97. The proposed model unifies the influence of binder composition, packing density, and curing conditions into a physically interpretable and practically applicable formulation. It enables early-age strength prediction of blended cementitious systems using only routine mix and density parameters, supporting performance-based mix design and optimization. The methodology provides a robust foundation for extending compactness-based modeling to more complex cementitious materials and structural applications.