Survival Modelling Using Machine Learning and Immune-Nutritional Profiles in Advanced Gastric Cancer on Home...

Background/Objectives: Patients with stage IV gastric cancer who develop chronic intestinal failure require home parenteral nutrition (HPN). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic relevance of nutritional and immune-inflammatory biomarkers and to construct an individualised survival prediction model using machine learning techniques. Methods: A secondary analysis was performed on a cohort of 410 patients with TNM stage IV gastric adenocarcinoma who initiated HPN between 2015 and 2023. Nutritional and inflammatory indices, including the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), were assessed. Independent prognostic factors were identified using Cox proportional hazards models. A Random Survival Forest (RSF) model was constructed to estimate survival probabilities and quantify variable importance. Results: Both the CONUT score and LMR were independently associated with overall survival. In multivariate analysis, higher CONUT scores were linked to increased mortality risk (HR = 1.656, 95% CI: 1.306-2.101, p < 0.001), whereas higher LMR values were protective (HR = 0.632, 95% CI: 0.514-0.777, p < 0.001). The RSF model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy (C-index: 0.985-0.986) and effectively stratified patients by survival risk. The CONUT score exerted the greatest prognostic influence, with the LMR providing additional discriminatory value. A gradual decline in survival probability was observed with an increasing CONUT score and a decreasing LMR. Conclusions: The application of machine learning to immune-nutritional data offers a robust tool for predicting survival in patients with advanced gastric cancer requiring HPN. This approach may enhance risk stratification, support individualised clinical decision-making regarding nutritional interventions, and inform treatment intensity adjustment.